Artificial superintelligence in a nutshell & what lies ahead

Artificial superintelligence (ASI) sounds like something out of a sci-fi movie—robots smarter than the smartest humans, capable of outthinking us in every way. But what’s intriguing is that ASI isn’t just a distant fantasy for moviegoers. It’s a real concept that researchers and tech companies are already working on. The only catch? We’re still figuring out how to get there.

So, what exactly lies ahead for ASI? Is it humanity’s next great leap, or are we speeding toward our own undoing? Let’s dive into what we know—and what we think might happen.

What is artificial superintelligence?

ASI is artificial intelligence on steroids. While today’s AI can handle specific tasks like recommending movies or driving cars, ASI would be able to outperform humans across all fields. Imagine an entity that’s not only an expert in chess but also a master artist, doctor, financial analyst, and astrophysicist—simultaneously. That’s the level of intelligence we’re talking about.

We’re currently in the age of Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI), which excels at narrow tasks like natural language processing. ChatGPT, for example, is great at processing and generating human language, but it can’t create a scientific theory from scratch. The next step is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which would match human intelligence across various areas. Only after AGI would we start talking about ASI.

How far are we from ASI?

The truth? No one knows. Optimists in tech believe ASI is an inevitable part of our future, but it’s anyone’s guess as to when. To get there, we’d need breakthroughs in multiple areas of AI—like large language models (LLMs), deep learning, neural networks, and even neuromorphic computing (hardware modeled after the human brain). These technologies would have to evolve dramatically for us to build anything close to ASI.

But it’s not just about making a really smart machine. ASI would need to be able to teach itself and improve its own intelligence—constantly. That’s where things get tricky. We’re still figuring out how human intelligence even works, let alone how to recreate it and then surpass it in a machine.

The potential benefits of ASI

It’s easy to get excited about what ASI could achieve. Once you have something smarter than the smartest human, the possibilities are endless. For starters, ASI could tackle problems that humans have struggled with for centuries. Think new cures for diseases, solving complex physics problems, or even designing interstellar travel.

Imagine ASI diagnosing illnesses more accurately than any doctor, inventing entirely new materials for space exploration, or managing global economies with precision. Efficiency would skyrocket as ASI systems automate tasks we never thought could be automated—from bomb disposal to inventing new technologies without human intervention.

ASI could operate 24/7, making fewer mistakes than humans and offering creativity that surpasses the human brain. In theory, it could reshape every industry, from healthcare to finance, and even creative fields like art and literature.

The risks—and they’re not small

Now for the downside. ASI comes with a long list of potential hazards, and we’re not just talking about some rogue robot deciding it’s time to take over the planet. First off, there’s the issue of control. If an ASI system is so much smarter than us, how do we ensure it follows human rules? What if it rewrites its own code, bypassing any restrictions we’ve put in place?

There’s also the question of unintended consequences. An ASI system could misinterpret its instructions, like solving climate change by deciding the best way to do it is to wipe out humanity (Sound familiar, The 100 fans?). Not to mention the ethical dilemmas: How do you program something that surpasses human intelligence to follow a moral code when humans can’t even agree on one themselves?

Then there’s the economic impact. ASI could take over jobs at a level that would make today’s fears of automation look like a quaint worry. Millions of jobs could vanish overnight. Sure, new jobs could emerge, but there’s no guarantee they’d be enough to replace what’s lost—or that humans would be able to do them better than ASI.

And of course, there’s the whole existential threat thing. Some experts warn that ASI could become self-aware and pursue goals that don’t align with humanity’s best interests—whether it’s reprogramming nuclear codes or simply deciding that humans are an unnecessary complication.

What we need to do before ASI shows up

Even though ASI isn’t here yet, now’s the time to start preparing. That means thinking seriously about regulations, ethical guidelines, and control mechanisms. Tech companies, governments, and researchers need to work together to ensure that ASI, when it does arrive, doesn’t send us into a tailspin.

One solution might involve programming ASI to have an ingrained moral compass, but that opens up a whole other can of worms. How do you decide which morals to program in? Whose ethics get chosen? And what happens when ASI inevitably gets smarter than us and finds those rules outdated?

We’ll also need to ensure ASI systems are transparent and accountable. The complexity of ASI could make its decisions nearly impossible to understand. If we can’t explain how or why it reaches certain conclusions, how can we trust it to make decisions that affect human lives?

Final thoughts: We’re on the edge of something big

Artificial superintelligence promises to be the biggest game-changer in human history—or our biggest nightmare. It has the potential to solve problems we’ve struggled with for millennia, but it also comes with risks we’ve barely begun to comprehend.

The future of ASI is still unwritten, and while the road ahead is full of challenges, it’s also brimming with possibilities. Whether ASI becomes our greatest ally or our biggest threat will depend on how we handle its development. Either way, it’s going to be one wild ride.